Opinions

Mohamed A. El-Erian, CAMBRIDGE – Nearly two years into the current bout of inflation, the concept of “transitory inflation” is making a comeback as the COVID-related supply shocks dissipate. This comes at a time when it is critically important to keep an open mind about the trajectory of inflation, including by avoiding an over-simplified transitory […]

Michael Spence and Belinda Azenui, MILAN/GRANVILLE, OHIO – The United States has a productivity problem, though one would never know it from looking only at the industries producing goods and services that are traded internationally. Because these goods and services account for only one-third of GDP and slightly over 20% of employment, as is typical […]

Zhang Jun, SHANGHAI – Chinese bank deposits increased by CN¥26.3 trillion ($3.9 trillion) last year, according to recent data from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Spurred by China’s rigid COVID-19 containment strategy, which the government rolled back in December, household savings surged by CN¥17.8 trillion in 2022, growing by more than […]

Takatoshi Ito, TOKYO – Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recently unveiled an ambitious plan to double the country’s defense budget to ¥43 trillion ($330 billion), roughly 2% of Japan’s GDP, over the next five years. Notably, the country’s massive rearmament program, its biggest since the end of World War II, has not triggered a political […]

Antara Haldar, CAMBRIDGE – One of the most iconic images of our time shows a polar bear marooned and adrift on an ice floe. Few other images capture the reality of climate change so viscerally. And now, ironically, Davos Man finds himself in a similar metaphorical position. His natural habitat, the hyper-globalized world of the […]

Minxin Pei, CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – The Chinese government seems to have fallen back in love with economic growth. As the chaotic exit from its zero-COVID policy has unfolded – leading to tens of thousands of deaths (at least) – the country’s leaders have been eager to profess their undying devotion to robust economic recovery. But lip service […]

Raghuram G. Rajan, CHICAGO – The US Federal Reserve is clearly determined to bring down inflation. But no one really knows how high it will have to raise its policy interest rate – and how long it will have to keep it there – to achieve its objective. Many are thus wondering whether the Fed […]

Kaushik Basu,NEW DELHI – The world has reached a major turning point. As artificial intelligence increasingly edges out traditional labor, it becomes clear that the future belongs to countries that can adapt to the changing nature of work. But adaptability requires an education system that nurtures creativity. This is particularly true in countries like India, […]

Nouriel Roubini, DAVOS – A host of interconnected “megathreats” is imperiling our future. While some of these have been long in the making, others are new. The stubbornly low inflation of the pre-pandemic period has given way to today’s excessively high inflation. Secular stagnation – perpetually low growth owing to weak aggregate demand – has […]

Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg Says More… Project Syndicate: Last July, you criticized the prevailing approach to tackling inflation in the United States, arguing that interest-rate hikes would be “insufficient to rein in inflation in the short run” and “likely [to] increase unemployment over time.” Since then, the US Federal Reserve has continued to hike rates, inflation […]

Jayati Ghosh, NEW DELHI – The World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, has always been more than a little problematic. But in recent years, the annual gathering of the rich and powerful has become an increasingly wasteful exercise in vanity. What is the point of all those private jets, luxury hotels, and clinking […]