Nouriel Roubini, DAVOS – A host of interconnected “megathreats” is imperiling our future. While some of these have been long in the making, others are new. The stubbornly low inflation of the pre-pandemic period has given way to today’s excessively high inflation. Secular stagnation – perpetually low growth owing to weak aggregate demand – has […]
Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg Says More… Project Syndicate: Last July, you criticized the prevailing approach to tackling inflation in the United States, arguing that interest-rate hikes would be “insufficient to rein in inflation in the short run” and “likely [to] increase unemployment over time.” Since then, the US Federal Reserve has continued to hike rates, inflation […]
Rabah Arezki, WASHINGTON, DC – Egypt is on the brink of a financial and economic abyss. The portfolio inflows that fueled its sovereign debt market have dried up, repeated currency devaluations have driven the Egyptian pound off a cliff, and inflation is at 21%, following the rapid erosion of the country’s foreign-exchange reserves. After initially recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, […]
Jayati Ghosh, NEW DELHI – The World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, has always been more than a little problematic. But in recent years, the annual gathering of the rich and powerful has become an increasingly wasteful exercise in vanity. What is the point of all those private jets, luxury hotels, and clinking […]
Landry Signé, WASHINGTON, DC – The past year has been challenging for Africa. After a hopeful 2021, during which the continent-wide GDP increased by nearly 7% and every region experienced real growth, the economy slowed in 2022 amid rising inflation, monetary tightening, and geopolitical tensions. But it was also a year when African countries were finally able […]
James K. Galbraith,AUSTIN – In his bid to become Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy apparently agreed to a demand, voiced by Representative Ralph Norman of South Carolina, that he commit to “shut down the government rather than raise the debt ceiling. ” There is firm bipartisan agreement on what this would mean. Crisis […]
Dani Rodrik, Reza Baqir, and Ishac Diwan,CAMBRIDGE – This year may prove devastating for the developing world, as more and more countries find themselves engulfed in debt crises. Several (Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Russia, Suriname, and Zambia) are already in default, and scores of others urgently need debt relief to ward off economic collapse and sharp rises in poverty. […]
Michael Jjingo, What fuels entrepreneurship survival over generations? In the last few weeks, while training entrepreneurs about corporate governance, some confided that their dream is to sustain and pass on their businesses to future generations. This piece attempts to delve into this matter of multi generations wealth that is seen as a preserve of Asians […]
Shang-Jin Wei,NEW YORK – China’s recent decision to abandon its strict zero-COVID policy has led many to believe that its economy will bounce back. The Economist Intelligence Unit, for example, has revised its forecast for Chinese GDP growth in 2023 upward, to 5.2%. But growth recovery is not automatic, and China must contend with several challenges, including […]
Kaushik Basu, MUMBAI – In December, India began its yearlong G20 presidency, taking over from Indonesia amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Surging inflation has raised the specter of a global recession. Supply chains, made more efficient but also more vulnerable by globalization and the digital revolution, are crumbling under the weight of COVID-related disruptions […]
Nouriel Roubini, NEW YORK – Inflation rose sharply throughout 2022 across both advanced economies and emerging markets. Structural trends suggest that the problem will be secular, rather than transitory. Specifically, many countries are now engaged in various “wars” – some real, some metaphorical – that will lead to even larger fiscal deficits, more debt monetization, […]
Gianluca Ruggieri, MILAN – In the face of Europe’s energy crisis, political and economic leaders in Italy, the European Union’s third-largest economy, are confronting two opposing forces. On one hand, there is fear of change, which leads policymakers to fall back on old solutions: drilling, new gas pipelines and gasifiers, and efforts to secure hydrocarbons […]
Mohamed A. El-Erian, CAMBRIDGE – On the 40th anniversary of her accession to the throne, Queen Elizabeth II remarked that, “1992 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure. In the words of one of my more sympathetic correspondents, it has turned out to be an annus horribilis.” The late […]