Why Taiwan Matters
Opinions

Why Taiwan Matters

Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, CAMBRIDGE/CHICAGO – US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s headline-generating visit to Taipei has reminded the world how much Taiwan matters to China. But Taiwan also should matter to the democratic world. It is no secret that the Communist Party of China (CPC) is committed to unifying Taiwan (which it views […]

From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation
Opinions

From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation

Nouriel Roubini NEW YORK – The world economy is undergoing a radical regime shift. The decades-long Great Moderation is over. Coming after the stagflation (high inflation and severe recessions) of the 1970s and early 1980s, the Great Moderation was characterized by low inflation in advanced economies; relatively stable and robust economic growth, with short and […]

Getting Productivism Right
Opinions

Getting Productivism Right

Dani Rodrik, CAMBRIDGE – I wrote recently about the possible emergence, from both the left and right of the political spectrum, of a new economic-policy paradigm that could supersede neoliberalism. The new framework gives governments and community organizations greater responsibility to shape investment and production – in support of good jobs, the climate transition, and more secure, […]

The Anatomy of Kenya's 2022 Election
Africa Opinions

The Anatomy of Kenya’s 2022 Election

Steven Gruzd, JOHANNESBURG – There was a time when Kenyan elections elicited only mild interest from the international community. For decades after Kenya gained its independence in 1963, the Kenya African National Union reliably dominated, owing to its use of questionable practices, some violence, and a persistently splintered opposition. But with the KANU’s defeat in 2002 and […]

Why Might China Avoid Strong Inflation?
Opinions

Why Might China Avoid Strong Inflation?

Zhang Jun, SHANGHAI – When high levels of capital investment spending fueled a sustained increase in Chinese inflation from 1991 to 2011, the authorities quickly brought the situation under control, and over the last decade, CPI has rarely exceeded 2%, compared to 5.4% in 2011. With policymakers in most major economies now losing their grip on price […]

The Coming Taiwan Crisis
Opinions

The Coming Taiwan Crisis

Minxin Pei, CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan has incited a predictably strong response from China. Chinese warplanes have brushed up against the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese foreign ministry has warned of “serious consequences” as a result of Pelosi’s visit to the island. Chinese President Xi Jinping has told US […]

The Post-Inflation Economy That Could Be
Opinions

The Post-Inflation Economy That Could Be

Raghuram G. Rajan, CHICAGO – Economic commentaries nowadays are typically about inflation or recession, so let’s instead consider the growth prospects once central banks get those challenges under control. As matters stand, there appear to be worrisome headwinds to growth. As most advanced-economy populations age, their labor-force growth is slowing, so there will need to […]

Yes, the US Economy Is Likely in Recession
Opinions

Yes, the US Economy Is Likely in Recession

Robert J. Barro, CAMBRIDGE – The latest figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) show that the US economy has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth. That accords with a popular definition of a recession. But economists have noted that any official declaration of a US recession must come instead from the National Bureau […]

Turning Off Congo's Looting Machine
Africa Opinions

Turning Off Congo’s Looting Machine

John Prendergast WASHINGTON, DC – Last month, the Belgian government returned a gold-capped tooth that was ripped from the mouth of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s first elected prime minister, Patrice Lumumba, more than 60 years ago. Lumumba was assassinated in 1961 by a Belgian execution squad that dissolved his body in acid, taking the tooth […]