Search Results for: US Federal Reserve

Jason Furman, CAMBRIDGE – Recent price- and wage-growth data make it increasingly clear that the US economy’s underlying inflation rate is at least 4% and more likely to be rising than falling. Although the Federal Reserve has acted forcefully in recent months to contain inflation, unfortunately it will need to stick to its plan of […]

Robert J. Barro, CAMBRIDGE – The latest figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) show that the US economy has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth. That accords with a popular definition of a recession. But economists have noted that any official declaration of a US recession must come instead from the National Bureau […]

Hippolyte Fofack, CAIRO – The unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia – which some have dubbed economic weapons of mass destruction – have globalized the Ukraine crisis, exacerbating market uncertainty and potentially derailing the post-pandemic recovery. Across Europe and elsewhere, growth forecasts for 2022 have been revised down sharply. Beyond dampening output and causing already high inflation to […]

Nouriel Roubini, NEW YORK – Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we must consider the economic and financial consequences of this massive historic development. The Ukraine war is not just another minor, globally inconsequential conflict of the kind seen in recent decades. This is a major escalation of […]

Edward N. Wolff, NEW YORK – Anxiety about inflation, among citizens and politicians alike, has been peaking recently. In the United States, the year-on-year increase in consumer prices reached 7.5% in January, the highest rate since February 1982. If people’s incomes increase by less than the rate of inflation, their real incomes decline, and they cannot afford […]

Eric Posner, CHICAGO – This week, the US Supreme Court begins its 2021 term amid a buzz of speculation that it has lost the public’s confidence. A recent Gallup poll finds that only 40% of the public approves of the way the Court handles its job – the lowest level since the survey began in 2000 (when […]

Willem H. Buiter, NEW YORK – How much slack is there in the US economy? In economics, the “gap version” of Okun’s law holds that a one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a two-point decline in the real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth rate below its potential. The gap matters, because the closer the […]

Isabella M. Weber, AMHERST – The fiscal expansion in the United States in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is like nothing seen outside of wartime. Further large-scale public spending will be needed to rebuild needed infrastructure, tackle climate change, and create jobs. But some prominent economists are warning that government spending on such an extraordinary scale could fuel […]

J. Bradford DeLong, BERKELEY – The financial and economic news in the United States lately has been dominated by concerns about inflation. “Runaway inflation is the biggest risk facing investors, Leuthold’s Jim Paulsen warns,” according to the cable news channel CNBC. As a potential hedge against inflation, “Bitcoin’s time to shine is fast approaching,” reports Fortune’s Robert Hackett. […]

Mohamed A. El-Erian, LAGUNA BEACH – President Joe Biden’s announcement that the US will have enough COVID-19 vaccines for every American by the end of May has contributed to a rising tide of optimism about the country’s economic prospects this year. This, and other good reasons to be hopeful about the economy, opens a valuable window for […]

Willem H. Buiter, NEW YORK – The unprecedented fiscal stimulus unleashed in the United States since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic calls for commensurate additional monetary stimulus. The restrictions imposed to control the spread of the coronavirus have caused the deepest global recession since World War II. Government-imposed lockdowns have varied in duration and […]